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Abandon earth like Hawking or sustain humanity

http://bigthink.com/ideas/21691

Stephen Hawking: I believe that the long-term future of the human race must be in space. It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster on planet Earth in the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand, or million. The human race shouldn't have all its eggs in one basket, or on one planet. Let's hope we can avoid dropping the basket until we have spread the load.


I see great dangers for the human race. There have been a number of times in the past when its survival has been a question of touch and go. The Cuban missile crisis in 1963 was one of these. The frequency of such occasions is likely to increase in the future. We shall need great care and judgment to negotiate them all successfully. But I'm an optimist. If we can avoid disaster for the next two centuries, our species should be safe, as we spread into space.


If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy, we should make sure we survive and continue. But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history. Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth, are growing exponentially, along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill. But our genetic code still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts that were of survival advantage in the past. It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster in the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand or million. Our only chance of long term survival, is not to remain inward looking on planet Earth, but to spread out into space. We have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years. But if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years, our future is in space. That is why I'm in favor of manned, or should I say "personed," space flight.

Just based on Hawking’s own argument, the fundamental problem is “our genetic code still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts”. Then, that is where we need to explore and reign.

One can go to the other end of the universe, but, if the problem is "in there", the solution won't be "out there".

If mankind reduces the earth to hell, how can mankind be trusted to build where so ever in space, to be heaven?

My Musical “Sensation Millennium’, delivered 1994, dealt with this topic. The story goes like the following:

As the earth is deteriorating, a group is sent to explore the space for another home.

Some planets are not habitable. Some are but already occupied and the inhabitants expel humans.

The group finally finds a planet to stay. But internal power struggle destroys the group.

So, another group has to be sent out to explore, while the power struggle on the earth continues…..

Comments

Re: Abandon earth like Hawking or sustain humanity | Internation

Hi, Dr. Wu,
It seems inevitable that humans will expand further into space. You might enjoy an interesting book by Timothy Leary called Exo-Psychology, about expansion of human consciousness into space. (Leary, T. (1977) Exo-Psychology: A manual on the use of the human nervous system according to the instructions of the manufacturers. Los Angeles (Culver City): Starseed/Peace Press, ISBN 0-915238-16-0).

Although humans can be selfish and aggressive, they also can be caring and altruistic. You might be interested in the social trap model that looks at some of the factors that control peoples' behaviors related to how they treat the environment. I put some reference below.

In the meantime, I hope we can work to sustain our planet. I just presented a paper at the 118th annual convention of the American Psychological Association with suggestions of how to decrease the flow of trash into the Ocean. You might find it interesting. It is at A social trap analysis of the Los Angeles storm drain system: A rationale for Interventions at http://www.timeriver.net/apastormdrainspaper.pdf.
Kevin

Social Traps and resouce dilemmas:

Hardin, G. (1968) The tragedy of the commons. Science, 162, 1243-1248.

Platt, J. (1973) Social traps. American Psychologist, 28, 641-651.

Cross, J.G. & Guyer, M.J. (1980) Social Traps, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, ISBN 0-472063154

Brechner, K.C. (1977) An experimental analysis of social traps. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 13, 552-564.

Brechner, K.C. and Linder, D.E. (1981) A social trap analysis of energy distribution systems. Chapter 2 in Advances in Environmental Psychology, Vol. 3, (A. Baum and Singer, J.E., eds.), Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum and Associates.

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Michael Alexander's picture

A differing view

As always, I will serve as resident contrarian. I will start with the fact that Dr. Hawking is not talking about “abandoning earth” he is talking about “expanding beyond earth.” In addition, I will ignore the assumption that we could do so affordably in the time mankind has left before either we kill ourselves of the sun goes nova. Let me get to the essence of my challenge.
While Dr. Hawking is a brilliant physicist and I would not challenge him on his academic home turf, this is not physics, and so I will feel freer to challenge him. I question his basic assumption that “genetic code still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts that were of survival advantage in the past.” More importantly, as an economist (this is my academic home turf) I disagree with his Malthusian statement and implied assumption that “population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth, are growing exponentially, along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill”. Lastly, I would question whether expansion into space would actually increase or decrease our survival as a species.

To Start with, our genetic code is designed to help our survival as a species. Actually, that is an overstatement; it is designed to help our survival as genes (an important distinction, without which, much of human behavior cannot be understood). In order to survive, we need both aggression (to dominate our environment) and reserve to keep from over-running it. That includes population controls (including vulnerability to diseases and aging). Altruism is also part of our nature. The herding instinct, the innate desire to form family units is as well. If a child’s survival threatens a parent, the parent will naturally give up his own life to protect his offspring, rather than sacrifice the offspring to protect oneself. Why is that?
It has to do with the preservation of the genes, which the child carries. The probability of the gene’s survival is greatest if the younger generation lives to breed, even though the offspring only carries half of the parent’s genes. The behavior of aunts and uncles (often called “the aunting gene”) is even more strongly tied to this same survival of the genes, since the offspring carries related genes. Granted, the more removed the genes, the less one genetically “cares” for the gene bearer, but even there, the concept of family, tribe, country, etc. are all consistent with the aunting genes’ behavior. In addition, concern for the environment and the species are therefore genetically hard-wired as well. In addition, even concern for other species is too. Certainly, concern for the family watchdog, who protects the family and therefore the genes, is consistent with this behavior. So is a greater concern for our closest genetic relatives over insects, or lower forms of life.
Are we growing exponentially? Not over the long run. Historically, there have been many stops in population growth as we hit the sustainability limits of the planet. Many years ago, I got a chance to evaluate the Club of Rome/Limits to Growth Model from the 70 is designed by Forester and Meadows. Into this basic Malthusian model, I inserted a simple pricing mechanism, to emulate improvements in efficiency (which we see all the time), and other natural responses. As a result, most scenarios reached stable points, not famines and disasters, but “sustainable” and viable ones. We use fewer resources as they become more expensive, we develop alternatives when costs motivate us.
Now I do not agree that we have been on the brink of species annihilation very often in the past. Oh, Western Civilization may have been in trouble, but I do not think the Cuban Missile Crisis was a big threat to Africa. Nor do I think any other situations have truly threatened our species, (and frankly, many did not threaten civilization, just the ruling governments…) nor have any natural disasters had potential global devastation associated. Let us not be alarmist.
Will traveling to different planets increase the probablity of sustaining the species? Ignoring the obvious question of do we want to sustain the species, the answer may be no, it will not. Mathematically, Hawking’s argument would be that if the probability of survival of a species on a planet is x. If there were two planets, with the same probability of survival (a cavalier assumption, I admit) and independent of each other, the probability would be greater {1-(1-x)^2}. However, it assumes that the probabilities are independent of each other, which is not a safe assumption.
In economics, we talk about “moral hazard”. What that means is that the probability of “a disaster” increases if an individual is insured against that disaster, because the individual, knowing that the disaster will be less severe, will take more risks. That is why people build homes in flood plains.
Suppose, for a moment that it costs $Y to send a colony to another planet. That is $Y less that we have to work on solving problems on Earth. That means that the probability of survival on Earth will decline accordingly. In addition, it may be that the probability of survival to an on another planet (I say “to” since survival of a generation ship on its way to another planet has its own probability of failure to reach the planet. Any fan of science fiction has seen the examples I could come up with) is small enough that the probability of species survival is less in total than if the $Y were spent solving problems here on Earth. In addition, the loss may not just be in dollars. If we send “the best and brightest” into space (whether or not they survive), they will not be here on earth to apply their skills to solving our problems.

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Global Warming cannot completely reflect climate change

I quite agree with you, Dr. Wu.
What we should do is to change our mind about our life or activities. Otherwise, human might destroy other planets too in the future.
First of all, I think, we need to change some slogans. The change of the slogans will not change 'global climate change', but might change the thought of global leaders from different countries causing them to change their policies. The following slogans are my suggestion for which I am writing an article.
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バーバリー コート

バーバリー サングラス」は、1856年創業の、イギリスを代表するファッションブランド。
創業者であるトーマス・バーバリー(Thomas Burberry)は、1835年イギリス・サリー州ブロッカムグリーンで誕生しました。 1924年有名な" バーバリー バッグ・チェック"が誕生。コートの裏地としてデザインされたのが起源で、いつの時代にも定番の柄として愛されています。人気の一流ブランド特集の第6弾は、「 バーバリー」のバッグ・財布などいろいろ御紹介します! バーバリー ベルト ( Burberry)は、 バーバリー マフラーブラックレーベル1856年にロンドンのベイジングストークにてトーマス・ バーバリー 財布が開業した洋服店で生まれたファッションブランドです。 バーバリー コートはジョージ五世からコート・ジャケット部門のロイヤルワラントを受け、コーチ バッグ英国王室で愛され続けることになります。 バーバリー英国王室から授与されたものです バーバリー コート.
バーバリー (Burberry)は、 バーバリー ベルト1856年にロンドンの バーバリー マフラーベイジングストークにてトーマス・ バーバリー が開業した洋服店で生まれたファッションブランドです。 バーバリーの名前の由来はスペイン語の バーバリー コート「ガバルディナ」(巡礼者の バーバリー マフラー着る上っ張り)といわれています。 バーバリー サングラス」は、1856年創業の、バーバリー ワンピースイギリスを代表するファッションブランド バーバリー マフラー .創業者であるトーマス・バーバリー(Thomas Burberry)は、1835年イギリス・サリー州ブロッカムグリーンで誕生しました。 バーバリー コー 1924年有名な" バーバリー バッグ・チェック"が誕生。 バーバリー 財布コートの裏地としてデザインされたのが起源で、 バーバリー コートいつの時代にも定番の柄として愛されています。 バーバリー コート人気の一流ブランド特集の第6弾は、 「バーバリー」のバッグ・財布などいろいろ御紹介します! バーバリー ベルト ( Burberry)は、 バーバリー マフラーブラックレーベル1856年にロンドンのベイジングストークにてトーマス・ バーバリー 財布が開業した洋服店で生まれたファッションブランドです。 バーバリー マフラーはジョージ五世からコート・ジャケット部門のロイヤルワラントを受け、 バーバリー バッグコーチ バッグ英国王室で愛され続けることになります。 バーバリー英国王室から授与されたものです バーバリー コート.
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モンクレール レディース

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ダンクsb ラインから新作が登場。1990年代のスケーターファッションからインスパイアを受けたこのモデル ナイキ ダンク SB 。カラーコンビネーションもさることながら絶妙な素材コンビネーション ナイキ エアマックス 24/7 が足下に彩りを与えています。インソールにはインスパイアを受けた90sスケータ nike ダンク sb ーのイラストが施されています。 ナイキ バスケットシューズ 1985年にノンエアバスケットボールシューズ ナイキ トキ キャンバス その歴史が始まった NIKE DUNK ( ナイキ ダンク )。80年代は、カレッジカラーが登場しボーラーに愛され ナイキ エア マグマ ND 、そのスタイリッシュなフォルムと革新的なカラーリングで復刻モデルとしてストリートで爆発的ヒット ナイキ ランニングシューズ 、NIKEのスケートボードライン ダンク low にてズームエアを搭載し ナイキ エアジョーダン が多くのスニーカーファンを魅了 ナイキ エア プレスト レディース
ナイキ エアマックス位置により違う圧の空気を注入、それを透明の窓から見えるようにした靴。「 ナイキ エア プレスト 」はナイキ、ランニング・カテゴリーのトップ・モデルに与えられていた商品名。1987年、 ナイキ エア ズーム トキ

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